KEFI Minerals

LN: KEFI

£9.3m market cap

1.7p last close

KEFI Minerals is an exploration and development company focused on gold and copper deposits in the highly prospective Arabian-Nubian Shield – principally the Tulu Kapi project in Ethiopia and, to a lesser extent, the Jibal Qutman project in Saudi Arabia.

Investment summary

KEFI has now raised equity, mandated the placing of US$160m of listed infrastructure bonds and expanded its binding agreement with local investors to sell an effective 26% project-level stake for US$38m (cf US$30m for 23% previously). As such, it has assembled the full funding consortium necessary to progress Tulu Kapi, while all outstanding government consents have now been granted, which will allow community resettlement later this year.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (£m)
EBITDA (£m)
PBT (£m)
EPS (p)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2017A 0.0 (3.5) (3.6) (1.2) N/A N/A
2018A 0.0 (4.1) (4.6) (1.0) N/A N/A
2019E 0.0 (3.4) (3.4) (0.2) N/A N/A
2020E 0.0 (1.0) (8.6) (0.4) N/A N/A
Last updated on 23/09/2018
Industry outlook

Assuming that commissioning of the plant now starts by end-2020, with first gold in April 2021 and full production by mid-2021, we calculate that Tulu Kapi is capable of generating free cash flow of c £48m pa, which we value at 5.35p/share in FY19 (prior to KEFI’s last, small equity raise earlier this month) or 4.70p/share assuming full conversion of its convertible loan facility (at a 10% discount rate). However, this increases to 8.53p in the event that KEFI is successfully able to leverage Tulu Kapi’s cash flow into other assets in the region.

Last updated on 23/09/2018
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (£m) 42.8
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 68
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual (3.7) (13.7) (43.3)
Relative* (1.5) (15.4) (39.4)
52-week high/low 10.9p/4.1p
*% relative to local index
Key management
Harry Anagnostaras-Adams CEO
Jeff Rayner Managing Director
laki Catsamas Group financial controller

Content on KEFI Minerals