TransContainer

Moscow: TRCN

RUB94137m market cap

RUB6775 last close

TransContainer owns and operates rail freight assets across Russia. Its assets comprise rail flatcars, handling terminals and trucks, through which it provides integrated end-to-end freight forwarding services to its customers.

Investment summary

TransContainer continued to grow strongly in Q1 with 20% y-o-y revenue growth and net income more than doubling to RUB2.6bn. Integrated Freight Forwarding and Logistics Services remains the key growth engine (up 18.5% y-o-y in Q1); on a geographical basis, sales to customers located in China posted particularly strong growth (up 3x y-o-y in Q1). The revenue growth in Q1 was above the trend we previously forecast for FY19 (+13% y-o-y), hence we recently raised our FY19–20 forecasts, with a 6–9% increase in revenues and a 14–17% increase in net income. TransContainer continues to trade at a substantial discount to international peers, both in emerging markets and developed markets.

Y/E Dec
Revenue (RUBm)
EBITDA (RUBm)
PBT (RUBm)
EPS (fd) (RUB)
P/E (x)
P/CF (x)
2017A 27782.0 10252.0 8147.0 448.2 1511.6 882.6
2018A 31288.0 13342.0 10263.0 560.9 1207.9 660.1
2019E 36480.0 17717.0 13222.0 751.8 901.2 507.1
2020E 41090.0 20745.0 15281.0 868.8 779.8 433.8
Industry outlook

Containerisation is a structural trend for the Russian market and should support revenue and profit growth for TransContainer, in our view. Currently, only 7.2% of Russia’s potentially containerisable rail cargo is transported in containers and, although this figure rose from 2.2% in 2001, it is still much lower than in the US (18%), India (16%) and Europe (14%).

Last updated on 25/07/2019
Sector
Industrials
Share price graph
Balance sheet
Forecast net debt (RUBm) 8256
Forecast gearing ratio (%) 16
Price performance
%
1m
3m
12m
Actual 10.0 3.0 49.4
Relative* 12.1 (2.4) 26.3
52-week high/low RUB6890.0/RUB4300.0
*% relative to local index
Key management
Alexander Shakhanov Deputy Director for Capital Markets & IR