A good summer

La Doria 27 September 2017 Update
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La Doria

A good summer

H117 results

Food & beverages

27 September 2017

Price

€12.9

Market cap

€402m

Net debt (€m) at 30 June 2017

73.7

Shares in issue

31.0m

Free float

37%

Code

LD

Primary exchange

Borsa Italia (STAR)

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

17.6

18.4

41.9

Rel (local)

14.0

11.2

2.4

52-week high/low

€12.9

€7.1

Business description

La Doria is the leading manufacturer of private-label preserved vegetables and fruit for the Italian (20% revenues) and international (80% revenues) market. It enjoys leading market share positions across its product ranges in the UK and Italy.

Next events

STAR conference

09/10/17

9m 17 results

14/11/17

Analysts

Sara Welford

+44 (0)20 3077 5700

Paul Hickman

+44 (0)20 3681 2501

La Doria is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

La Doria’s H117 results demonstrate that the business is solid: despite a tough macroeconomic backdrop in several markets, revenues were up 1.9% during the period, or an impressive 7.4% in constant currency, mainly driven by volumes. The important factor is the outcome of the seasonal 2017 tomato campaign, and – as expected – lower national tomato production, together with the sector destocking following the decrease in production in southern Italy in 2016, resulted in more successful customer negotiations this year, and hence agreed price increases for 2018. As a reminder, this should result in a margin recovery from Q417, when the new contracts start to kick in, and will mainly benefit FY18 margins. We raise our forecasts to reflect the improved outlook and also roll forward our DCF. Our fair value moves to €15.54/share from €12.49.

Year end

Revenue (€m)

PBT*
(€m)

EPS*
(c)

DPS
(c)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

12/15

748.3

57.4

144.6

28.0

9.0

2.2%

12/16

653.1

37.3

108.8

18.0

11.9

1.4%

12/17e

656.4

34.4

82.0

17.0

15.8

1.3%

12/18e

695.8

44.0

103.5

20.0

12.5

1.5%

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments.

Positive tomato campaign

Industry forecasts were for a reduction in crop and for a positive outcome to the 2017 campaign as a result of the sector destocking following the Southern Italian production decline in 2016. This did indeed come through, and hence sales prices have increased, which should also have positive margin implications. Pulses also had a better harvest and hence raw material pressures in the canned pulses line should abate from Q417, which should result in higher margins.

Good H117 results; forecasts raised

In H117 the sauces and pulses and vegetable lines were the main contributors to top-line growth (largely volume-driven). However, EBITDA of €24.5m was c 9% below last year; as expected, the margin decline was due to higher raw material costs and lower selling prices. Margins in sauces were up significantly. We increase our forecasts as a result of the positive outcomes from the harvests. Our revenue forecasts for FY17 and FY18 rise by 2%, while our EBITDA forecasts rise by 4-5%.

Valuation: Material upside

We take the opportunity to roll forward our DCF to start in 2018. Based on our updated forecasts, our DCF model points to a fair value of €15.54 per share, or c 20% upside from the current share price. We calculate that La Doria now trades on 12.5x 2018e P/E, a c 40% discount to its private-label peer group, while on 2018e EV/EBITDA it trades on 8.0x, broadly in line with the peer group. We believe La Doria remains an attractive proposition given the strength of its market position in the private-label segment, and management’s commitment to improve the stability and visibility of the business by reducing reliance on the red line.

H117 results review; estimate changes

Consolidated revenue for H117 of €340.9m was 1.9% ahead of the prior year, and up an impressive 7.4% in constant currency, mainly driven by volume growth. Strength came from growth in the sauces and the vegetable line (both up 12% in constant currency). Group EBITDA was €24.5m, and the EBITDA margin of 7.2% was 80bps below last year, as a combination of lower sales prices and higher raw material costs weighed on margins. Reported end-June net debt was €73.7m, a reduction from the 30 June 2016 level of €81.9m; end-2016 net debt was €104.8m and, due to the seasonality of the business, we forecast the usual cash outflow in H2 and hence net debt of €98.0m at the end of 2017.

We detail our forecasts in Exhibit 1 below. Our 2017 forecasts move up following the more positive harvests. We note our 2017 and 2018 revenue forecasts are now above the targets set out by the company in February as part of its rolling three-year plan.

The annual tomato campaign runs from the end of July to the end of September/start of October. Typically, La Doria negotiates annual contracts with its customers, and hence prices, just before or during the processing season, which gives it good visibility on its profitability outlook through to Q3 of the following year, when the next pricing rounds occur. Therefore, we expect Q3 to continue with the weaker trajectory from 2016, but the recovery should start to come through in Q4 as we now expect higher selling prices as a result of the successful 2017 campaign. Of course, this applies to the red line.

The harvest for pulses is also expected to be more positive. Thus there should be a margin recovery coming through from Q4 in the “pulses and vegetables” line as raw material costs abate thanks to the improved harvest.

The sauces business had an excellent H117 and we expect volume growth to continue, with stable margins through H217 and FY18. The fruit and fruit juices segment is more likely to remain under pressure, as excess supply continues to be a problem in the domestic Italian market.

The business as a whole is likely to experience continued and increasing pressure from customers as the tough macroeconomic backdrop remains in place, particularly in markets such as Italy, Germany and the UK. The UK will continue to see pressure from sterling weakness. As a reminder, La Doria derives c 50% of its revenue from the UK. Of course, the competition is also encountering higher raw material costs as a function of their euro denomination, but UK-based competitors (eg in baked beans) have the advantage of having some sterling-denominated costs to mitigate the impact, while LDH (La Doria) Ltd (LDH) is a trading company and the majority of costs are euro-denominated. La Doria consolidates 100% of its minorities and treats as debt the value of the put options that exist against it.

Exhibit 1: Current vs previous forecasts

2017e

2018e

€m

Old

New

% change

Old

New

% change

Revenue

643.3

656.4

2.0%

681.9

695.8

2.0%

EBITDA

47.7

49.4

3.4%

58.1

60.0

3.2%

EBIT

34.7

36.4

4.7%

45.6

47.5

4.1%

PBT (normalised)

32.7

34.4

5.0%

42.1

44.0

4.5%

Net profit

24.2

25.4

5.0%

30.7

32.1

4.5%

Net debt

95.1

98.0

3.0%

79.6

81.6

2.5%

Source: Edison Investment Research estimates

Valuation

La Doria’s three-month share price performance has been +18%, outperforming the MIB, which was up c +8%. On 2018 estimates, La Doria trades on a P/E of 12.5x, which compares to the peer group of private-label and small-cap food manufacturers on 18.4x, or a discount of c 40%, which we believe is unwarranted. On EV/EBITDA, La Doria trades on 9.0x FY18e estimates, which is broadly in line with the peer group on 8.5x.

Exhibit 2: Benchmark valuation of La Doria relative to peers

Market cap

P/E (x)

EV/EBITDA (x)

Dividend yield (%)

(m)

2017e

2018e

2017e

2018e

2017e

2018e

Greencore

£1,340.7

12.2

10.9

10.0

7.9

3.1%

3.3%

Ebro Foods

€ 3,101.2

16.6

15.9

9.6

9.0

3.2%

3.4%

Parmalat

€ 5,687.9

34.4

32.3

11.2

9.2

0.6%

0.6%

Bonduelle

€ 1,209.3

19.5

15.9

9.9

8.0

1.2%

1.3%

Valsoia

€171.8

19.3

17.2

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

Peer group average

20.4

18.4

10.2

8.5

2.0%

2.2%

La Doria

€401.5

15.8

12.5

10.9

9.0

1.3%

1.5%

Premium/(discount) to peer group

-22.6%

-32.2%

7.6%

5.3%

-35.3%

-28.6%

Source: Edison Investment Research estimates, Bloomberg consensus. Note: Prices at 25 September 2017.

Our primary valuation methodology is DCF analysis, and we calculate a fair value of €15.54/share (from €12.49), or c 20% upside from the current level. This is based on our assumptions of a 1.0% terminal growth rate and a 7.5% terminal EBIT margin. Our WACC of 6.0% is predicated on an equity risk premium of 4%, borrowing spread of 5% and beta of 0.8. Below, we show a sensitivity analysis to these assumptions and note that the current share price is discounting a terminal EBIT margin of 7.5% (which compares to La Doria’s already reported EBIT margin of 6.1% in 2016) and a terminal growth rate of c -0.7%.

Exhibit 3: DCF sensitivity to terminal growth rate and EBIT margin (€/share)

EBIT margin

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

Terminal growth

-2.0%

10.6

11.2

11.7

12.3

12.9

13.5

-1.0%

11.3

12.0

12.7

13.3

14.0

14.7

0.0%

12.3

13.1

13.9

14.6

15.4

16.2

1.0%

13.7

14.6

15.5

16.5

17.4

18.3

2.0%

15.7

16.8

18.0

19.1

20.3

21.4

3.0%

18.8

20.3

21.8

23.3

24.8

26.3

4.0%

24.5

26.6

28.8

30.9

33.1

35.2

Source: Edison Investment Research estimates

We have rolled forward our DCF to commence in 2018 vs FY17 previously.

Key valuation sensitivities

La Doria’s key sensitivities include:

input cost inflation on the agricultural commodities it processes to manufacture its products;

the supply/demand balance affecting the achievability of finished goods price inflation;

consumer consumption patterns and competitive pressures, particularly in Europe with a subdued economic environment, although La Doria and private label in general should benefit from any consumer downtrading; and

FX, specifically euro/sterling due to the consolidation of its trading subsidiary LDH.


Exhibit 4: Financial summary

€m

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

2019e

Year end 31 December

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

IFRS

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

631.4

748.3

653.1

656.4

695.8

716.7

Cost of Sales

(527.6)

(616.9)

(545.4)

(556.0)

(582.4)

(592.7)

Gross Profit

103.8

131.5

107.8

100.4

113.4

124.0

EBITDA

 

 

60.0

77.6

56.3

49.4

60.0

69.6

Operating Profit (before amort. and except.)

48.1

61.0

39.9

39.0

50.2

36.4

Intangible Amortisation

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Exceptionals

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

FX Gain / (loss)

0.3

3.6

8.9

0.0

0.0

0.0

Operating Profit

48.4

64.6

48.8

36.4

47.5

57.1

Net Interest

(4.1)

(3.6)

(2.7)

(2.0)

(3.5)

(3.5)

Profit Before Tax (norm)

 

 

44.0

57.4

37.3

34.4

44.0

53.6

Profit Before Tax (FRS 3)

 

 

44.3

61.0

46.2

34.4

44.0

53.6

Tax

(14.3)

(16.1)

(12.4)

(8.9)

(11.9)

(14.5)

Profit After Tax (norm)

29.9

44.8

33.7

25.4

32.1

39.2

Profit After Tax (FRS 3)

29.9

44.8

33.7

25.4

32.1

39.2

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

30.6

31.0

31.0

31.0

31.0

31.0

EPS - normalised fully diluted (c)

 

 

80.5

144.6

108.8

82.0

103.5

126.3

EPS - (IFRS) (c)

 

 

81.5

144.6

108.8

82.0

103.5

126.3

Dividend per share (c)

22.0

28.0

18.0

17.0

20.0

23.0

Gross Margin (%)

16.4

17.6

16.5

15.3

16.3

17.3

EBITDA Margin (%)

9.5

10.4

8.6

7.5

8.6

9.7

Operating Margin (before GW and except.) (%)

7.6

8.1

6.1

5.9

5.5

6.8

BALANCE SHEET

Fixed Assets

 

 

179.6

177.6

173.3

170.8

170.8

181.2

Intangible Assets

10.6

10.6

10.0

9.3

8.6

7.9

Tangible Assets

146.6

143.3

143.9

142.1

142.8

143.5

Investments

22.3

23.7

19.4

19.4

19.4

29.7

Current Assets

 

 

374.0

398.8

367.8

384.4

418.8

450.0

Stocks

212.9

199.8

187.0

189.0

200.9

204.5

Debtors

100.3

107.7

103.9

101.7

107.8

111.1

Cash

41.1

77.9

62.8

79.5

95.9

120.3

Other

19.6

13.3

14.2

14.2

14.2

14.2

Current Liabilities

 

 

(229.1)

(220.7)

(187.9)

(180.9)

(191.3)

(193.1)

Creditors

(143.7)

(129.3)

(126.4)

(119.5)

(129.8)

(131.6)

Short term borrowings

(85.4)

(91.4)

(61.5)

(61.5)

(61.5)

(61.5)

Long Term Liabilities

 

 

(136.6)

(157.3)

(144.5)

(140.1)

(132.1)

(132.6)

Long term borrowings

(93.9)

(116.6)

(106.1)

(116.0)

(116.0)

(116.0)

Other long term liabilities

(42.6)

(40.7)

(38.3)

(24.1)

(16.1)

(16.6)

Net Assets

 

 

187.9

198.4

208.8

234.2

266.3

305.4

CASH FLOW

Operating Cash Flow

 

 

53.7

58.2

65.7

33.6

40.4

50.2

Net Interest

(4.1)

(3.6)

(2.7)

(2.0)

(3.5)

(3.5)

Tax

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Capex

(17.2)

(8.4)

(13.0)

(10.5)

(12.5)

(12.5)

Acquisitions/disposals

(64.8)

(4.9)

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Financing

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Dividends

(6.3)

(9.3)

(8.4)

(6.4)

(8.0)

(9.8)

Other

8.6

(23.3)

(16.3)

(8.0)

0.0

0.0

Net Cash Flow

(30.2)

8.7

25.3

6.7

16.4

24.4

Opening net debt/(cash)

 

 

108.5

138.2

130.1

104.8

98.0

81.6

HP finance leases initiated

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

Other

0.5

(0.6)

(0.1)

0.1

0.0

0.0

Closing net debt/(cash)

 

 

138.2

130.1

104.8

98.0

81.6

57.2

Source: Edison Investment Research, La Doria accounts

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by La Doria and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world-renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisers and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

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Copyright 2017 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by La Doria and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
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Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

295 Madison Avenue, 18th Floor

10017, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 8249 8342

Level 12, Office 1205

95 Pitt Street, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

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