Strong growth continues

S&U 15 December 2016 Update

S&U

Strong growth continues

Trading update

Financial services

15 December 2016

Price

2,169.00p

Market cap

£260m

Net debt (£m) at end July 2016

38.4

Shares in issue

12.0m

Free float

26%

Code

SUS

Primary exchange

LSE

Secondary exchange

N/A

Share price performance

%

1m

3m

12m

Abs

(3.6)

(9.9)

(12.5)

Rel (local)

(6.1)

(12.9)

(24.4)

52-week high/low

2,610.00p

1,992.50p

Business description

S&U’s Advantage motor finance business lends on a simple hire purchase basis to lower and middle income groups that may have impaired credit records which restrict their access to mainstream products. It has approaching 42,000 customers currently.

Next events

Year-end update

10 February 2017

FY17 results

28 March 2017

Analysts

Andrew Mitchell

+44 (0)20 3681 2500

Julian Roberts

+44 (0)20 3077 5748

S&U is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

S&U’s December trading update was reassuring, confirming strong growth in both customer numbers and receivables in the Advantage motor finance business. While impairments relative to revenues have ticked up, this was in line with management expectations. Our estimates are essentially unchanged and the valuation appears conservative given continued growth potential at Advantage and the new opportunity that the bridging finance pilot may provide.

Year
end

Revenue (£m)

PBT*
(£m)

EPS*
(p)

DPS
(p)

P/E
(x)

Yield
(%)

01/15

36.1

14.8

99.0

66.0

21.9

3.0

01/16

45.2

19.5

132.4

76.0

16.4

3.5

01/17e

61.2

25.8

171.0

90.0

12.7

4.1

01/18e

77.9

31.0

206.0

109.8

10.5

5.1

Note: *PBT and EPS are normalised, excluding amortisation of acquired intangibles, exceptional items and share-based payments. FY16 DPS ex-exceptional payment of 125p.

Receivables growth of 30% from January

For the period between the end of its first half (31 July) and 7 December, S&U reported that Advantage’s motor finance customer numbers were up 34% and transaction numbers 16% above the same period last year. Net receivables of £189m were nearly 9% ahead of the half-year level and 30% ahead of the end-FY16 figure. The rolling 12-month level of impairments did increase over the period, from 17.7% to 18.5% of revenues, but this should be seen in the light of the five-year average of 19.1% and a modest mix change towards loans with a higher-risk, higher-return profile. We have factored the update into our estimates, but this does not result in any material change.

Aspen Bridging Finance approaching launch

S&U continues to work on its Aspen Bridging Finance pilot launch, which is due to take place shortly. Over 15 months, Aspen may invest up to £20m in loans. S&U points to limited supply in the housing market and unmet demand as providing a sound background for development of the bridging finance market. Given that S&U’s incremental overheads for the pilot are limited, subject to take up, it should make a small positive contribution in FY18.

Valuation: Cautious given yield/growth

Following a recent period of relatively weak share price performance versus peers, S&U is now rated at below peer average book or earnings multiples. Our central valuation, derived from an ROE/COE model, is unchanged at c 2,650p, suggesting scope for useful upside from the current share price.

Trading update

S&U’s trading update, covering the period from 1 August to 7 December, was issued on 8 December. Data points from the update were as follows (with percentage changes from the same period last year unless shown):

Advantage’s motor finance customer numbers were up 34% to nearly 42,000. This also compares with “over 40,000” at the end of H117 (July) and 32,600 at the end of FY16 (January).

Transaction numbers increased by 16% and are on track to reach c 20,000 by the financial year-end compared with 15,100 for FY16.

Net receivables of £189m were nearly 9% ahead of the half-year level and 30% higher than the level recorded at the end of FY16 (£145m).

The rolling 12-month level of impairments did increase over the period from 17.7% of revenues to 18.5%, but this should be seen in the light of the five-year average of 19.1% and a modest mix change towards loans with a higher risk, higher return (see further comments below).

From a regulatory perspective, important news is that Advantage Finance, which has been operating under interim permission from the FCA, has secured its full Consumer Credit permission from the FCA.

S&U has named its planned pilot bridging finance business Aspen Bridging Finance, with the launch due shortly. The group has previously indicated that it may invest up to £20m in bridging loans over 15 months. The secured bridging finance market in England and Wales is put at c £5bn per annum, has grown from c £2bn in 2012 and is forecast to grow to nearly £10bn by 2020 (Mintel estimates).The ability of bridging finance providers to offer tailored terms at short notice is a key attraction for many customers, while the relatively niche, fragmented nature of the market means that attractive returns are potentially available to a specialist lender such as S&U with substantial experience of credit control in non-standard areas of the market. Loans are to be secured on ‘bricks and mortar’ with a maximum loan to value of 75%. Aspen is likely to fine-tune the nature of its offering during the pilot period as it gains experience of the market.

Exhibit 1: Advantage Finance flat interest rate, customer score and impairment %

S&U financial year
(end January)

Interest rate flat
pa (%)

Average customer score

Impairment % of revenues

FY12

16.5

981

33.0

FY13

16.4

887

25.4

FY14

16.5

901

19.5

FY15

16.8

871

16.3

FY16

17.5

860

16.8

H117

17.9

854

17.5

Source: S&U. Note: Customer score is S&U’s own bespoke credit measure.

Exhibit 1 puts the increase in impairments highlighted above into a longer-term context. As can be seen, there has been an upward trend in the average flat interest rate charged to customers, reflecting adjustment of the risk/reward balance as Advantage has used its bespoke credit scoring system to respond to competitive dynamics, seeking to achieve a risk profile that provided the best risk-adjusted return. Over the period shown, the average customer credit score has declined, but so has the level of impairments against the background of an improving economy and employment market. The downtrend in impairments partly reversed in H117 and this has continued, as reported in the trading update, reflecting a small experimental increase in risk (and interest rate) undertaken during FY16 and the earlier part of FY17. While the relatively modest increase in impairments is likely to be maintained in the near term, the company notes that the average customer score on more recent new business has increased, suggesting there should be a stabilisation and in due course potential improvement in this ratio.

Financials

As noted earlier, our estimates are little changed from those published in our last note in October, with only a marginal reduction in revenues for both years (see Exhibit 2).

Exhibit 2: Changes to estimates

Revenue (£m)

PBT (£m)

EPS (p)

DPS (p)

Old

New

Change (%)

Old

New

Change (%)

Old

New

Change (%)

Old

New

Change (%)

2017e

61.7

61.2

(0.8)

25.8

25.8

0.0

171.0

171.0

0.0

90.0

90.0

0.0

2018e

78.5

77.9

(0.8)

31.0

31.0

0.0

206.0

206.0

0.0

109.8

109.8

0.0

Source: Edison Investment Research

On funding S&U has, as previously announced, agreed a £15m increase in bank facilities taking the total to £85m, which the company expects to be sufficient to fund growth at Advantage Finance over the next year and to launch Aspen Bridging Finance. At the half year end net debt stood at £38.4m and net debt to equity, 29%. We estimate this will have risen to c 37% by the year end.

Valuation

Our usual peer group comparison (Exhibit 3) includes companies that have non-standard lending or motor finance as part of their activities. S&U now trades on a P/E multiple that is below the group average and is still noticeably below the most highly rated stocks, Provident Financial and Private and Commercial Finance. The yield of over 3% is above average while the return on equity is mid-range but below the average; the price to book ratio is slightly below average.

Exhibit 3: Peer comparison

Price (p)

Market cap (£m)

2016 P/E (x)

Yield (%)

ROE (%)

Price to book (x)

S&U

2,147.5

256.9

12.8

3.5

15.2

2.0

1PM

64.5

35.1

9.7

0.8

15.8

1.4

Close Brothers

1,392.0

2,089.5

11.2

4.1

17.7

1.9

Private and Commercial Finance

29.0

49.3

18.1

0.0

13.4

2.1

Provident Financial

2,671.0

3,943.8

15.4

4.5

38.6

5.4

Secure Trust Bank

230.1

397.2

15.2

3.3

12.8

1.7

Average

13.7

2.7

18.9

2.4

Source: Bloomberg, Edison Investment Research. Note: P/Es adjusted to CY16. Priced at 13 December 2016.

Exhibit 4 plots returns on equity against book multiples. The small sample means that we should not draw a strong conclusion, but S&U appears broadly in line with these peers. Future relative performance is likely to reflect the comparative growth rates and returns each company achieves. Absent an unexpected turn for the worse in terms of economic background (which would also affect the peers), the prospects for Advantage remain positive, while the Aspen Bridging Finance pilot may open up a new avenue for diversifying growth.

Exhibit 4: Return on equity and price/NAV for S&U and selected peers

Source: Bloomberg. Note: OPM (1PM), PCF (Private and Commercial Finance), CBG (Close Brothers), PFG (Provident Financial). Based on historical numbers for ROE and NAV. As at 13 December 2016.

Our ROE/COE calculation (with unchanged assumptions including a return on equity of 17%, cost of equity of 10% and growth of 5%) gives an unchanged central value per share of c 2,650p. On a medium-term view, successful deployment of additional capital in the lending activities would benefit returns, potentially justifying a higher assumption for the return on equity.

Finally, for reference, we have collated the recent performance of the peer group share prices in Exhibit 5. In terms of its performance since its 12-month high, S&U has been modestly weaker than the group average while over the shorter-term, one or three-month periods, it has lagged more noticeably, perhaps suggesting scope for period of relatively stronger performance following a reassuring trading update.

Exhibit 5: Share price performance comparison

One month

Three months

One year

Ytd

From 12-month high

S&U

-5.1

-10.3

-10.2

-13.2

-18.4

1PM

-2.3

-11.3

-1.6

-11.3

-14.4

Close Brothers

6.5

0.3

4.1

4.7

-5.2

Private and Commercial Finance

0.9

-0.9

29.2

19.8

-17.9

Provident Financial

-4.4

-10.3

-22.0

-19.0

-23.8

Secure Trust Bank

3.6

-3.0

-31.2

-29.9

-32.7

Average (unweighted)

-0.4

-5.4

-3.0

-7.7

-17.3

Source: Bloomberg. Note: As at 13 December 2016.

Exhibit 6: Financial summary

£'000s

2014

2015

2016

2017e

2018e

Year end 31 January

PROFIT & LOSS

Revenue

 

 

60,823

36,102

45,182

61,232

77,924

Impairments

(12,847)

(5,863)

(7,611)

(11,349)

(14,224)

Other cost of sales

(6,866)

(6,674)

(8,980)

(13,387)

(17,115)

Administration expenses

(22,519)

(6,957)

(7,131)

(8,620)

(11,260)

EBITDA

 

 

18,591

16,608

21,460

27,876

35,325

Depreciation

 

 

(577)

(163)

(209)

(241)

(294)

Op. profit (incl. share-based payouts pre-except.)

 

 

18,014

16,445

21,251

27,635

35,030

Exceptionals

0

0

0

0

0

Non-recurring items

0

0

0

0

0

Investment revenues / finance expense

(727)

(1,680)

(1,782)

(1,863)

(4,024)

Profit before tax (FRS 3)

 

 

17,287

14,765

19,469

25,772

31,006

Profit before tax (norm)

 

 

17,287

14,765

19,469

25,772

31,006

Tax

(3,955)

(2,920)

(3,583)

(5,184)

(6,201)

Discontinued business after tax

6,615

53,299

Profit after tax (FRS 3)

 

 

13,332

18,460

69,185

20,589

24,805

Profit after tax (norm)

 

 

13,332

11,845

15,886

20,589

24,805

Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m)

11.9

12.0

12.0

12.0

12.0

EPS - normalised (p)

 

 

112.0

99.0

132.4

171.0

206.0

Dividend per share (p)

54.0

66.0

201.0

90.0

109.8

EBITDA margin (%)

30.6%

46.0%

47.5%

45.5%

45.3%

Operating margin (before GW and except.) (%)

29.6%

45.6%

47.0%

45.1%

45.0%

Return on equity

20.5%

15.7%

15.2%

15.4%

16.9%

BALANCE SHEET

Non-current assets

 

 

52,212

76,781

103,653

140,714

187,466

Current assets

 

 

57,739

68,578

61,903

67,310

81,138

Total assets

 

 

109,951

145,359

165,556

208,024

268,604

Current liabilities

 

 

(10,091)

(8,945)

(6,850)

(8,860)

(9,516)

Non-current liabilities inc prefs

(30,650)

(55,150)

(30,650)

(59,650)

(105,650)

Net assets

 

 

69,210

81,264

128,056

139,514

153,438

NAV per share (p)

588

689

1,084

1,179

1,297

CASH FLOW

Operating cash flow

 

 

(5,407)

(13,404)

(16,017)

(30,586)

(39,829)

Net cash from investing activities

(736)

(1,096)

80,716

(392)

(580)

Dividends paid

(5,664)

(6,734)

(23,090)

(9,558)

(11,289)

Other financing (excluding change in borrowing)

33

8

55

20

0

Net cash flow

 

 

(11,774)

(21,226)

41,664

(40,517)

(51,699)

Opening net (debt)/cash

 

 

(21,015)

(32,789)

(54,015)

(12,351)

(52,868)

Closing net (debt)/cash

 

 

(32,789)

(54,015)

(12,351)

(52,868)

(104,567)

Source: S&U accounts, Edison Investment Research. Note: Net debt includes £0.45m preference shares. FY16 DPS includes an exceptional payment of 125p. FY14 P&L figures include the discontinued home credit business and are therefore not comparable with subsequent years.

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by S&U and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

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Level 25, Aurora Place

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Level 15, 171 Featherston St

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New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number 247505) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [46085869] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [4794244]. www.edisongroup.com

DISCLAIMER
Copyright 2016 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by S&U and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison’s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are “wholesale clients” for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. A marketing communication under FCA Rules, this document has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.
Edison has a restrictive policy relating to personal dealing. Edison Group does not conduct any investment business and, accordingly, does not itself hold any positions in the securities mentioned in this report. However, the respective directors, officers, employees and contractors of Edison may have a position in any or related securities mentioned in this report. Edison or its affiliates may perform services or solicit business from any of the companies mentioned in this report. The value of securities mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise and are subject to large and sudden swings. In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a “personalised service” and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a “class service” provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited (“FTSE”) © FTSE 2016. “FTSE®” is a trade mark of the London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE’s express written consent.

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

Frankfurt +49 (0)69 78 8076 960

Schumannstrasse 34b

60325 Frankfurt

Germany

London +44 (0)20 3077 5700

280 High Holborn

London, WC1V 7EE

United Kingdom

New York +1 646 653 7026

245 Park Avenue, 39th Floor

10167, New York

US

Sydney +61 (0)2 9258 1161

Level 25, Aurora Place

88 Phillip St, Sydney

NSW 2000, Australia

Wellington +64 (0)48 948 555

Level 15, 171 Featherston St

Wellington 6011

New Zealand

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